Living economically

Being someone who is a frequent user of the internet, I’ve found that you often borrow ideas from other people when you are trying to make sense of your own situation.  Use that idea publicly, and you better be prepared to give due thanks to whoever came up with it.

However, I got this next thing from someone who got it from someone else, who in turn got it from someone else.  I prefer not to dig deeply; after all, I’ve got a post to write.  But I do want to give Big D a shout out (the red, blue and white UIC version, not the green and gold Raider version) for bringing the NBA efficiency model over from the Butler board, who obviously got it from someone who covers the NBA in some capacity.  Blindly guessing, I’ll say John Hollinger at probably did it, but it may come from the NBA themselves.  The formula:

Efficiency = [(Pts+Reb+Ast+Blk+Stl) – (Missed FG+Missed FT+TO)] / Games Played

Luckily for us, someone along the grapevine had the wherewithal to change it from games played to minutes played at the end of the formula.  By doing so, we have figured out how to evaluate players who play a different amount of minutes.

Efficiency = [(Pts+Reb+Ast+Blk+Stl) – (Missed FG+Missed FT+TO)] / Minutes Played

I figured, while this isn’t a perfect formula by any means, it does work as a rough sketch as to how our players stack up over the course of the season.  Before we get into it, I want to make sure we understand some of the faults this formula has for the application to our games:

– The less minutes played, the more single statistics are going to count.  A two-point basket means a lot more to a guy who plays ten minutes than a guy who plays thirty.  Now, the guys who play the least amount of minutes are likely to be closer to the top of the list (or bottom, depending on their statistical output).

– Defensive statistics like steals and blocks are there, but not all lockdown defenders get recognized as such in the stat book.  A player may not get a lot of numbers in the box score, but their impact on the game was huge because of the defense they played.

– For the same reason sparse minutes help players at the back end of the rotation, many minutes hurt players and keep them closer to the middle.

– Three point field goals are not factored in; they are given no weight in this formula, although there are efficiency ratings that do so.  We won’t use it for this game to keep it simple.

– Fouls are not accounted for.  I know this talks about the minutes they played on the court, but Anthony Hill doesn’t do the team favors when he’s sitting early with two fouls.

Name Positives Negatives Minutes Played Efficiency Rating
Evan Richard 14 4 10 1
Ryan Haggerty 14 2 12 1
Jerard Ajami 14 1 16 0.813
Anthony Hill 19 8 16 0.688
Kyle Kelm 16 6 15 0.666
Tone Boyle 13 2 19 0.579
Tony Meier 13 5 14 0.571
Kaylon Williams 19 7 24 0.5
Ja’Rob McCallum 11 5 12 0.5
Lonnie Boga 10 3 16 0.438
Christian Wolf 3 0 7 0.429
Mitch Roelke 2 1 5 0.2
Mitchell Carter 6 4 11 0.182
Ryan Allen 5 3 15 0.133
Patrick Souter 2 3 8 -0.125

So, as you can see, the individual game numbers don’t mean a whole lot. I just thought I’d tinker with something and see how it came out.

What do you think?

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